With the recent announcement from Flax that they will be solving the NFT plot problem and pools with a small change to the consensus mechanism the other Chia Forks are going to soon have a hard decision to make. In order to stay feature-competitive with Flax they are going to need to make a hard choice.
According to the developer of HDDCoin Maxim Goods, the actively developed forks are all going to become Flax forks instead of Chia forks. His team is actively planning for it and he thinks the others will have no choice but to follow. HDDCoin is taking it slow, however. First they are releasing a more user friendly version of Flora’s NFT plot reward retrieval tool to give themselves some time to evaluate the Flax 2.0 code. But assuming it works well they fully plan to hard fork from that as a base.
They have also been paying really close attention to the ChiaDoge hard fork to CryptoDoge and right now if you check AllTheBlocks.net (another tool I have a half-written draft on, definitely cool and you should definitely click that link if you want a blockchain explorer for the forks) you will see that ChiaDoge is still more than 5 times as big as CryptoDoge by netspace. This means that a lot of farmers will not switch with a hard fork, no matter how necessary it is. Maxim Goods thinks about 2/3 will eventually switch over.
Based on what I have seen, I think it is critical that they do this. Real co-farming with Chia, in a pool, is the only way the forks will survive without a real business and plan behind them. I suspect the fork developers will mostly agree. The exception seems to be Chives, who thinks that fitting inside the space left behind by Chia plots is the right move. I think it will open them up to some of the other issues that led the Chia team to mandate K32 for mainnet, such as grinding attacks.
Whatever happens, whether Flax delivers or not, the more time goes by the more apparent it is that the forks will require a consensus change and hard fork in order to fully, 100% support the Chia NFT plots.