Has anyone been following the Chia markets lately? Even just casually glancing at the daily price, we can all agree it’s not looking very good. What is causing this dramatic down trend in price can only be theorized at this point due to the multiple factors involved; it really is anyone’s guess. Apart from a blip in market before COP26 the Chia price has done nothing but eat away at farmers earnings over time.
The question many people are asking is how low can it go? And what will be Chia coin’s price 1-3-5 years from now. Good questions for sure and no one, including this author, has the honest answer. But like all good clickbait we can guess!
So here is my Personal Guess and Opinion On Chia’s Price, going forward. Please remember this is just my NON EXPERT, non professional personal opinion on Chia’s price. If Anything id call it more of a personal plan mixed with an educated guess. This price prediction will also be something I use to look back on to see how accurately I predicted the price going forward. Accordingly I will make adjustments as more information is released; however with 2022 on the horizon this provides a great snapshot going into what I consider the actual “year one” of the project.
My personal rationale
Because Chia is not your average run of the mill cryptocurrency. It simply does not value itself the same way as any other crypto. At the same time Chia coin cannot technically be evaluated like a business because it’s not technically a traditional business, it’s a blockchain. The key takeaway for me in the short and long term is that technology is going to drive the price forward. So all my immediate and long term entry/exit points probably will be based around any information regarding new uses for said technology. Another factor I’m going to consider is community activity; as an early adopter I think this will play a huge factor in my initial phase of return. One of the key factors to my long term position on the project is its accessibility. I think it’s important to remember that 20$ USD isn’t a lot of money to me; however, to someone across the world that is not as fortunate, it is life changing. General adoption in lesser nations will be a key factor I think to price.
Year 1 2022- volatile with short bursts. Possible High- 300$
Possible low- 40$
Investment intent. Sell on the up bursts with the intent to buy back on the reversals. Collection of XCH is still key. Any price over 300$ may be worth selling an XCH or two. That’s two years of power paid for my farm. Which would cover the running costs for years 2-3
Considering the rocky start to the launch of Chia, price should be relatively volatile during this first year of my possible returns. Collecting XCH will still be a key factor in how I invest going forward. Personally, I’m looking long term on my investment: however there could be possible sell points due to the natural ebb and flow of the market. I think anything over 220$ per XCH the first few months of 2022 would be a good sale point. Due to the fluctuation in the market chances are it’s going to hover in between 250$ and 100$. It doesn’t take as much money to move the Chia market due to its low volume as people might think; so a 100-200$ positive swing like we saw during cop 26 isn’t out of the question.
I think at 250$ im selling a portion of my coins to buy back more coins in the down turn. Chia has a bit of a support problem when it comes to both the bear and bull sides of the coin. What comes up will probably work its way down again. At least for 2022.
Using volatility to collect coins is the key to 2022.
Also hope to see a few NFT projects out going into 2023.. That would be sweet. NFTs are hot; they are a separate but all encompassed investment. One or two really well done NFT projects on Chia will probably be the key to the first year success.
Year 2 2023- second wave of farming. The pi revolution! + CATs
Possible high 700$
Possible low- 100$
Investment intent. First review of my personal investment will come around this part of the year going into 2023. I think by then a lot of the quirks will be worked out and the blockchain itself will be established enough to really take a macro look at how it’s really going. Project asteroids and the world bank prototypes are possibly established?
My guess is by the end of 2023 if we don’t start seeing a second wave of farming interest and a large growth in the community; It could be a dead end for many. So being realistic I might as well consider a larger range.
Chia should be going into 2023 at around 200$ per coin, maybe 250$. A good sale in year 2 will be 400$. Another thing I want to consider for year 2 is the premine and what starts to happen with that. Going into years 4 and 5, that will be the driving factor. Chia including the premine is maybe a 500$ coin with a top 20 market cap full stop.. So how the premine is controlled will be a big factor to my investment going into especially mid 2023. If the price of Chia is in the 350$- 400$ range by the end of 2023 i think it will be considered a win.. A big key will be if Chia can sort out the node issue with Raspberry Pis. The Raspberry Pi and the mobile farming capabilities if developed by then; it will bring massive outlying communities which could see Chia spike into the low 700$ range. If we see that, probably a good buy back at the 400$ price. the halving which will happen during this time period Plus the influx of new farmers could really moon the coin at this point. I think going into years 4 and 5 we are going to see who’s been sticking it out. But 2023 is going to separate the men from boys per se.
Cat coins should also really start picking up steam by year 2; and one or two well received CAT projects will help hold the price.
Making profits at the right time and then buying back in at the right time will be key to success in 2023..
Year 3, 2024- Chia’s first adjustment year. Since boom
After all the pumping going on in years 1-2 and the influx of new farmers and hype on projects; profit reality finally sets in.
Possible High- 1000$
Possible Low 300$
If you’re still here going into 2024 chances are you’ve probably hit a return or are at least breaking even. Projects should be fairly established and operational. Fees are a constant and the need for Chia although great will start to wean a bit. 3 years is a stupid time to be guessing the price but assuming there is a year 3 we will see stagnation in the Chia markets. High Volatility by now is probably over; we’ve established a market cap and are either a force to be reckoned with or still grasping at air. Halving has adjusted the market fully by now and we are set in our ways by year 3. Consistency will be key in year 3 for me. Diversifying between a few projects in the Chia sphere will be what i really focus on going into the future, by then hopefully a few projects have taken shape and are leading the charge in utility.
My overall outlook for the first 3 years is super positive. These first few years are obviously going to be really important in setting the price of the coin. it’s a crappy guess at best and I have no idea what is going to happen.. That’s just my general outlook. A 5-700$ price point I think is a good market value for early Chia going forward.
What will be the actual price? I have no idea. The crypto sphere is a volatile crapshoot of all of us making these same assumptions. Ideally don’t take anything I’m saying here with any weight. It’s just a super short exploration of my own thoughts on the first couple years of the project; with some numbers tossed in. Chances are I’ll change my mind on the value at some point before these three years. Do your research and stay informed. Value and price don’t always correlate so take any information available and rationalize what you yourself would do. Probably best to have a, plan A, plan B and a plan C. At all times.
3 thoughts on “Will Chia coin ever find its price? My unnecessary 3 year price prediction”
You’re assuming business as usual in crypto. We’re at the beginnings of adoption where chia has the potential to be a unicorn. IMO there’s also a risk of another project jumping the gun and triggering a kind of event effectively similar to a nuclear power plant failure that could be weaponized to kill the whole industry.
Talking about XCH price without mentioning the net space is kind of useless. If XCH will double, and the net space will double, that will make farming even harder, as the ROI for drives will double and of course the power draw needed to win will double.
One thing that you didn’t mention at all is the IPO. From the beginning they have planned to IPO the company and is supposed to happen well within your prediction timeframe. Not considering that and what it can do to the value of the company and the coin is an oversight.